#LYN ALDEN TRANSITION FREE#

She says, “Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance.” Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation.

#LYN ALDEN TRANSITION FREE#

Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. Are we heading into a dollar bear market?.Commodities, inflation, and global growth.CPI Metrics and the Fed’s targeting of two percent.Labor markets, stimulus and unemployment benefits.There are some concerns at the moment regarding their housing markets.

In general, commodity bull markets are good for resource countries like Canada and Australia. The dollar can have a detrimental effect on other currencies, with Turkey and Lebanon being recent examples. The global demand for dollars is tied to oil, and there is a regular cycle based on fiscal policy. We’ve been in a free-floating currency rate system since the 1970s, and we may be entering another dollar bear market. Gold can be a hedge against negative real yields, and the timing for the next gold move will track real rates. We just had the largest year-on-year growth of the money supply since World War II. She discusses the impacts of growing base money and stimulus. The question will be how difficult it will be to reduce it. The Fed plans to overshoot its 2% inflation target for a period of a few months. CPI metrics are relatively inaccurate due to quality adjustments and lack of important factors like housing, healthcare, and food. Some commodities may stay at new levels and might not fall much overall.

Several factors could affect the CPI, including increased commodity demand globally. Lyn explains how year-on-year data can be misleading and why in Q3, the statistics will appear to worsen.

We offshored a lot of our manufacturing, and there are several feedback loops driving equity valuations higher as a result. We’ve been in a secular bull market since the 1980s and have built a significant trade imbalance. It will be important to watch the planned infrastructure spending because that will impact some sectors of the economy. The various stimulus programs and changes in people’s behavior have caused supply shocks in lumber and electronics. This should change as these benefits run out. Many of the additional unemployment benefits have been problematic for getting back lower-paid workers. Unemployment is understated because some have stopped looking for work. However, it’s going to take a while to come back to previous levels. Lyn discusses the labor market and how it snapped back somewhat last year. Watch and leave questions and comments on the YouTube video above or on Reason's Facebook page.Tom welcomes Lyn Alden, Financial Newsletter Editor & Publisher, back to the show. for a discussion about the federal government's decision to guarantee all deposits at the failed Silicon Valley Bank with Alden and Kling. Join Reason's Zach Weissmueller this Thursday at 1 p.m. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers urged the federal government to guarantee the money of all the bank's depositors and warned that 'now is not the time for lectures about moral hazard.' But Kling insists that 'past crises,' such as the savings and loan collapse of the 1980s, 'were bungled by authorities who were blind to the moral hazard problem.'Īnd Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies, says 'banks are basically highly-leveraged bond funds with payment services attached, and we treat it as normal to keep our savings in them.' She argues that the Federal Reserve makes it nearly impossible for banks to hold the bulk of their customers' deposits in cash because 'regulators want banks to be reasonably safe, but not 'too safe.' They want all banks to be leveraged bond funds to a certain degree, and won't allow safer ones to exist.' 'We have learned over the last few days that many small and mid-sized banks in this country are Zombies,' writes Arnold Kling, a senior scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and former economist for the Federal Reserve system and Freddie Mac.įollowing the run on Silicon Valley Bank, former U.S.

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